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1 Dec 2015 08:59 EUR/USD - 1.0607.. Euro climbs to intra-day high of 1.0610 in active European trading on upbeat German data. 
Reuters reported Germany's unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent in November, the lowest level since reunification in 1990, the Federal Labour Office said on Tuesday. 
The seasonally adjusted unemployment total fell last month by a stronger-than-expected 13,000 to 2.772 million. Economists polled by Reuters had expected it to drop by 5,000. 
Reuters also reported German factory activity rose in November to its highest level in three months, a survey showed on Tuesday, suggesting Europe's largest economy is shaking off a slowdown in emerging markets and the Volkswagen emissions scandal. 
Markit's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Europe's largest economy, rose to 52.9 in November from 52.1 the previous month. 
That was slightly above a Reuters consensus forecast and a preliminary estimate of 52.6. 
"For now, it seems as if Germany's goods-producing sector is largely unaffected by the VW emissions scandal," said Markit economist Oliver Kolodseike. 
1 Dec 2015 08:49 GBP/USD - 1.5118... Breaking news from Reuters, BoE's Carney adds:' 
- says feels absolutely no political pressure to water down bank regulations. 
-global review of banks' trading book capital requirements will have quite modest impact in UK. 
- counter cyclical buffer will only be moved in 25 bp increments. 
- interest rates when they come will be limited and gradual. 
- macroprudential risks could be present, FPC has to be vigilant. 
-the more effective the FPC is, the greater confidence the MPC can have that it will not have to raise rates to tackle financial stability risks. 
- 25 basis point increase in interest rates has bigger impact than 25 bp increase in counter cyclical buffer. 
- cumulative increase in capital for banks is less than 1 percentage point.'
1 Dec 2015 08:02 GBP/USD - 1.5096... Breaking news from Reuters, BoE's Carney says:' 
- UK banks now significantly more resilient than before financial crisis. 
- higher capital costs ultimately passed on to borrowers. 
- uncertainty about final resting place for capital can stop banks from taking prudent risks. 
- no new wave of capital regulation coming, no 'basel iv'. 
- by moving early, before risks are elevated, FPC expects to be able to vary CCB gradually. 
- active use of CCB means more efficient capital structure as not always focused on highest-risk scenario. 
- with today's announcement, basic amount of capital our system requires is settled. 
- UK banks are already most of the way there on capital. 
-tax changes in autumn statement will affect buy to let market.' 
1 Dec 2015 07:06 GBP/USD - Continues fm previous update... 
The BoE Financial Policy Committee's report comes as markets brace for the United States to raise interest rates later this month for the first time since the financial crisis. 
"Financial market prices remain vulnerable to a sharp increase in market interest rates or the compensation demanded by investors for risky assets," the report said. 
With the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee unlikely to raise British interest rates until later next year, the FPC is having to take other steps to guard against risky behaviour. 
Even if domestic cost pressures are too weak to warrant a rate rise, British consumer and mortgage lending is growing at its fastest rate since the financial crisis. 
So-called buy-to-let mortgages -- which enable small landlords to purchase property to rent out -- showed weaker underwriting standards than residential mortgages and the BoE's Prudential Regulation Authority said it was examining this. 
The FPC said it still stood ready to take action if needed and would monitor closely the impact of higher property transaction taxes for buy-to-let which finance minister George Osborne announced last week and will take effect next April. 
The BoE also said a recent narrowing in Britain's big current account deficit was likely to be temporary, and that vulnerabilities could build quickly. 
1 Dec 2015 07:04 GBP/USD - Continues fm previous update... 
The BoE also said it expected the banking sector as a whole to hold high-grade tier one equity capital of 13.5 percent of risk-weighted assets by 2019, up from 13 percent now -- part of which would overlap with the capital required for the CCB. 
The BoE has said it wanted to give banks more clarity about its long-run aims for the amount of capital they hold, now that credit conditions had largely got back to normal. 
Banks have complained that in the past, the BoE has unexpectedly piled on extra capital requirements, making it hard for them to lend or decide which lines of business to stay in. 
Alongside its half-yearly Financial Stability Report, the BoE also released the results of annual 'stress tests' into how lenders would deal with unexpected economic shocks. 
This year the focus was on emerging market and trading risks, and Royal Bank of Scotland and Standard Chartered both only passed thanks to steps they took to improve their capital ratios mid-way through the testing process. 
The other five big lenders tested -- HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group, Santander and Nationwide -- did not have to take action. 
Asset managers will face tests next year of how they would deal with investors pulling out their money en masse. 
1 Dec 2015 07:03 GBP/USD - 1.5091.. Reuters just reported BoE Financial Policy Committee's report. The Bank of England set out plans on Tuesday to require banks to hold as much as 10 billion pounds extra capital as the credit cycle moves into a more normal phase, but stopped short of immediate action. 
The central bank said credit conditions in Britain had largely recovered from the financial crisis as banks began to lend more freely, and warned that asset prices were vulnerable to a big rise in interest rates and emerging market risks. 
"Following the global financial crisis, there was a period of heightened risk aversion and retrenchment from risk-taking," the BoE said. "The system has now moved out of that period." 
The central bank said it now expected banks to hold a so-called counter-cyclical capital buffer (CCB) of 1 percent during normal times, and was in the process of tweaking bank-specific requirements with a view to impose this step-by-step from March. 
The CCB aims to rein in risky lending at frothier stages of the credit cycle. It stands at zero currently, but the BoE has already required some banks to hold extra capital due to firm-specific risks. Some economists and banking analysts had expected the BoE to raise the CCB this month to 0.5 percent. 
1 Dec 2015 03:30 AUD/USD - 0.7266... Breaking news from Reuters, quoting from RBA Rate Statement: 
-room for further policy easing if needed. 
-A$ adjusting to declines in commodity prices. 
-inflation is low and should remain so. 
-judged economic outlook had firmed a little. 
-policy needs to be accommodative. 
-inflation should remain low. 
-low rates supporting borrowing and spending. 
-information suggest moderate expansion economy continues.
1 Dec 2015 03:17 EUR/USD - 1.0580.. Euro also staged a short-covering bounce to 1.0597 due to intra-day broad-based long liquidation in the usd, suggesting choppy trading abv y'day's fresh 7-month bottom at 1.0558 (NY) wud continue. 
Although range trading is in store until European open, pay attention to a slew of Nov mfg PMIs, starting with Italy at 08:45GMT, then France at 09:50GMT, Germany at 08:55GMT n EZ at 09:00GMT.  
Despite y'day's marginal weakness to 1.0558, traders reported a layer of bids for profit taking have been placed fm 1.0550 all the way to 1.0500 n there is market chatter of option barrier there. Offers are noted at 1.0600/10 n more abv with stops touted at 1.0645/50. 
1 Dec 2015 03:12 USD/JPY - 122.81.. Dlr finally pares intra-day losses ahead of Tokyo lunch session after tanking fm 123.28 to 122.64 despite y'day's cross-inspired rally fm 122.69 (Asia) to as high as 123.34 in NY. Traders citing broad-based long usd liquidation as the main reason for the intra-day steep fall. 
As dlr has remained under pressure despite intra-day gains in the Nikkei, suggesting near term upmove fm last week's low at 122.26 has made a top y'day at 123.34 n choppy sideways swings are likely to continue n if the greenback continues to weaken versus its major peers, then the pair may ratchet lower in European trading. Offers are noted at 122.90/00 n more abv with stops reported abv 123.35. Some bids are touted at 122.60-50 n more below with fairly large stops building below 122.20. 
1 Dec 2015 01:59 More from previous udpate... 
The Caixin survey focuses more on small- to mid-sized private firms, which are showing more stress from the prolonged economic slowdown and high financing costs, while the official versions look more at larger, state-owned firm. 
To avert a sharper slowdown, Beijing has rolled out a flurry of support steps since last year, including fast-tracking infrastructure investment, cutting interest rates six times since November 2014, easing downpayment restrictions for some home buyers and cutting taxes on small cars. 
But such measures have been slower to take effect than in the past, and economists still expect the government to roll out more support in coming months. 
Premier Li Keqiang said last week that China was on track to reach its economic growth target of about 7 percent this year, and the economy was going through adjustments to maintain reasonable medium- to long-term growth. 
But that would still mark China's weakest economic expansion in a quarter of a century, and some analysts believe real growth levels are much weaker than official data suggest. 
1 Dec 2015 01:58 From previous update... 
But domestic demand may have weakened. The overall new orders sub-index, which covers orders from at home and abroad, shrank at a slightly quicker pace than in October and for the fifth month in a row. 
Deflationary pressures also intensified, with the survey showed sharper decreases in both factories' input costs and selling prices, putting more pressure on profit margins. 
Data last week showed profits earned by Chinese industrial companies fell 4.6 percent in October from a year earlier, declining for the fifth consecutive month industries deal with soft demand and overcapacity.  
Sluggish demand forced manufacturers continued to cut jobs for the 25th straight month in November, the Caixin survey showed. 
A similar "two-speed" economic trend was seen in official factory and services surveys released earlier in the day, with factory activity unexpectedly falling to a three-month low while services activity picked up pace.  
1 Dec 2015 01:54 More news report on China's latest data. Reuters reported China's factory activity contacted for the ninth straight month in November, but at a slower pace than in October, a private survey showed, fuelling hopes that the economy may be slowly levelling out after a raft of government support measures. 
The Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index(PMI) edged up to 48.6 in November, beating market expectations of 48.3, which would have been unchanged from the previous month. 
The reading was the highest since June but remained well below the 50-point level, pointing to a deterioration in activity and suggesting the world's second-largest economy continues to lose momentum, albeit at a more gradual pace than panicky global investors had feared this summer. 
"This indicates that pressure on economic growth has eased and fiscal policy has had a strong effect," said He Fan, chief economist at Caixin Insight Group. "Overall, the economy is still on track to become more stable." 
While containing several encouraging elements for China bulls who had predicted a fourth-quarter turnaround, the survey pointed to an economy that is still struggling on a number of fronts, with no significant recovery in sight. 
So called "old growth drivers" of the Chinese economy, such as manufacturing and investment, in particular, continue to struggle. After falling for six months, the output sub-index returned to a neutral reading of 50.0 in November. 
However, new orders were mixed, raised questions as to whether factory production will return to sustainable growth. New export orders expanded at the fastest rate in 13 months, although at a modest pace. 
1 Dec 2015 01:52 A piece of China news worth noting. Reuters reported activity in China's manufacturing sector contracted for a fourth straight month to a three-year low, an official survey showed on Tuesday, adding to signs of persistent economic sluggishness despite a flurry of stimulus moves. 
The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.6 in November from the previous month's reading of 49.8, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), lagging expectations of 49.8 from analysts polled by Reuters. 
With subdued demand at home and abroad, activity in China's factories shrank in October for a third straight month, fuelling fears that the economy may be cooling more rapidly than expected. 
As for the services sector, whose growth has helped offset persistent weakness in manufacturing, the official non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53.6 in November from October's 53.1. 
Despite a long series of stimulus measures, including cutting interest rates six times since November last year, muted monthly data for October suggests China's economy has lost further momentum. 
Some analysts expect China's economy will bottom out in the fourth quarter as a burst of stimulus measures rolled out by Beijing gradually takes effect, but many remain wary about the outlook. 
1 Dec 2015 01:50 USD/JPY - 123.17.. Reuters reported Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari said on Tuesday that finance ministry data on capital expenditure shows companies are finally starting to implement their aggressive investment plans. 
Amari was speaking to reporters after finance ministry data showed that capital expenditure in July-September rose at the fastest pace in more than eight years. 
1 Dec 2015 00:37 USD/MAJORS - From previous update... 
A person familiar with the IMF deliberations said approval was unanimous. An IMF official said it was not IMF policy to disclose board voting records. The yuan will have a 10.92 percent share, in line with expectations, after a review of the weightings formula for the SDR which also cut the euro's share by more than 6 percentage points. 
To be included in the SDR basket, the yuan had to meet the criteria to be "freely usable," or widely used to make international payments and widely traded in foreign exchange markets -- a yardstick it missed at the last review in 2010. 
The yuan's inclusion in the basket from October 2016 is a largely symbolic move with few immediate implications for financial markets. But it is the first time an additional currency has been added to the SDR basket, which determines which currencies countries can receive as part of IMF loans. 
The new SDR formula gives more weight to financial variables and less to exports, reflecting long-standing criticism of the methodology but also cutting the euro's share to 30.93 percent, from 37.4 percent. 
The yuan will come in with a higher weight than sterling and yen, which will drop to 8.09 percent and 8.33 percent respectively, while the dollar remains broadly unchanged at 41.73 percent. 
The addition is likely to fuel demand for China's currency and for renminbi-denominated assets as central banks and foreign fund managers adjust their portfolios to reflect the yuan's new status. 

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