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市場最新消息
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| 即市 市場最新消息 |
| 1 Apr 2026 |
13:26 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, during AEI event, St. Louis Fed's Musalem says :
- Fed's dual mandate is pro-growth
- if nominal interest rate comes lower, the 10-year yield will decline too
- supply chain disruptions from Iran war include helium, aluminum, fertilizer
- I am committed to getting inflation down to 2%
- need to demonstrate commitment to 2% inflation every day
- need to verify the waning of tariff inflation
- we are better off on inflation indicators than the 1970s
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| 1 Apr 2026 |
13:10 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, in an interview with Reuters, US President Trump says :
- "we've had full regime change" in Iran
- 'we're going to be out of Iran pretty quickly,' won't give timeline
- we have some more targets left; if we have to, we'll come back to do spot hits
- Iran will not have a nuclear weapon 'nor do they want one'
- will express 'my disgust' with NATO in his speech; says he is 'absolutely' considering withdrawing U.S. from NATO
- does not care about nuclear material; will watch by satellite
LSEG then reported the United States will be "out of Iran pretty quickly" and could return for "spot hits" if needed, President Donald Trump told Reuters on Wednesday, hours before he was scheduled to make a primetime address to the nation.
Trump also said he would state in the speech that he is considering withdrawing the U.S. from the NATO alliance.
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| 1 Apr 2026 |
13:08 |
Continues from previous update...
In this environment, Musalem said "the risks to the labor market and inflation both tilt in unfavorable directions, that is, toward a weaker labor market and greater persistence of above-target inflation."
He noted that it's been an extended practice for the Fed to look through supply shocks as likely temporary drivers of higher inflation, but the current situation may be different.
"History suggests caution is warranted, however, especially when underlying inflation is persistently above target," Musalem said. "Supply shocks may be more likely to have a persistent impact on inflation and inflation expectations, especially given the difficulty of identifying how much underlying inflation is due to temporary supply shocks as opposed to persistent demand pressures."
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| 1 Apr 2026 |
13:07 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said on Wednesday he doesn't see a near-term need for the U.S. central bank to change its interest rate stance, as he warned of rising inflation risks tied to the war in the Middle East.
"Policy is well positioned to address risks to both dual mandate objectives, and I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time," Musalem said in the text of a speech to be delivered before a gathering at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
"The economic outlook is highly uncertain," he said. And while the baseline outlook holds for decent levels of growth, stability in the unemployment rate and further moderation in inflation, he added that "uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and unsettled tariff policy could weigh on consumer and business spending in the first half of the year."
Musalem also said "higher fuel, aluminum and fertilizer prices" could also weigh on the economy.
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| 1 Apr 2026 |
12:38 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported U.S. retail sales increased solidly in February as motor vehicle purchases rebounded and temperatures warmed up, but surging gasoline prices because of war in the Middle East could crimp spending in the months ahead.
Retail sales rose 0.6% after a revised 0.1% dip in January, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, rising 0.5% after a previously reported 0.2% drop in January. The Census Bureau is still catching up on data releases following delays caused by last year's government shutdown.
Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 0.5% in February after rising 0.2% in January. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Consumer spending slowed in the fourth quarter, helping to hold back GDP growth to a 0.7% annualized rate. The economy grew at a 4.4% pace in the third quarter.
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| 1 Apr 2026 |
12:28 |
Continues from previous update...
"(The market)'s still pricing us to raise rates. I would still say that is a judgment markets have to make but I think they're getting ahead of themselves," Bailey said.
Before the crisis, British inflation was on course to fall back to its 2% target and the BoE had said cutting rates further was likely. That changed dramatically with the start of the Iran war.
Bailey said the BoE was looking at a sharp rise in inflation expectations "very carefully" but the message he had received from businesses was that they had limited ability to raise prices.
"Businesses consistently say to me that they're operating in a context of an absence of pricing power," he said.
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| 1 Apr 2026 |
12:27 |
GBP/USD - 1.3300... LSEG reported Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Wednesday that markets were still getting ahead of themselves by pricing in interest rate hikes by the central bank in response to the hit to the British economy from the Iran war.
Bailey, speaking to Reuters at the central bank's London headquarters, said the central bank would need to keep a clear focus on risks to growth and jobs as well as inflation when making its next decision on rates.
"We will have to, obviously, act on monetary policy if we think it's appropriate to do so. But it strikes me, and it still strikes me today, that the most important thing to do is to tackle the source of the shock," he said.
"Of course, we have to deal with the shocks that come our way. But our remit is very clear on this that ... we have to do so in a way that ... causes the least damage in terms of activity in the economy and in terms of jobs," Bailey added.
Financial markets are currently pricing in two rate hikes by the BoE this year - and have previously priced in as many as four - while most economists polled by Reuters expect rates to stay on hold.
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| 1 Apr 2026 |
12:25 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported U.S. private payrolls increased steadily in March, the ADP's national employment report showed on Wednesday.
Private employment rose by 62,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised 66,000 gain in February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment rising by 40,000 jobs after a previously reported 63,000 increase in February.
The ADP report is jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, and was published ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' more comprehensive and closely watched employment report for March on Friday. ADP has been a poor predictor of the BLS' private payrolls estimate.
Nonfarm payrolls likely rebounded by 60,000 after decreasing 92,000 in February, a Reuters survey of economists predicted, as a strike by healthcare workers ended and temperatures warmed up.
Private payrolls are forecast to have increased by 70,000 after slumping 86,000 in the prior month. The unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at 4.4%.
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| 31 Mar 2026 |
06:07 |
EUR/USD - 1.1462... LSEG reported German retail sales fell unexpectedly in February, decreasing by 0.6% compared with the previous month, data showed on Tuesday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.2% increase.
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| 31 Mar 2026 |
05:48 |
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| 30 Mar 2026 |
15:07 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday the central bank is watching developments in the private sector for trouble.
When it comes to private credit, "it's a relatively small part of a very large asset pool, we're watching it super carefully," Powell said at Harvard University. While stopping short of saying how much trouble the sector currently presents, he said: "You're not going to hear people say, oh, there's no problem here, because that's a jinx."
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| 30 Mar 2026 |
15:02 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed's Chairman Powell continues to say :
- it's a time of very low job creation
- probably something longer-term happening outside the normal business cycle
- very optimistic about medium and longer term
- AI is making people more productive
- no denying it's a challenging time to enter labor market
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| 30 Mar 2026 |
15:00 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday longer-run inflation expectations appear to be holding in there despite the current energy shock, and the central bank does not yet need to make a decision on how to react to the latest troubles.
"Inflation expectations do appear to be well anchored beyond the short term," Powell said at Harvard University. When it comes to the energy shock tied to the Iran war, "we don't know what the economic effects will be, but we'll certainly be mindful" of how that affects price pressures after being above the 2% target for so long.
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| 30 Mar 2026 |
14:54 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed's Chairman Powell continues to say :
- on monetary policy Fed needs to be fully independent, but regulation is different especially since Dodd-Frank
- the whole idea is to be nonpolitical
- the chair should allow the vice chair for supervision to carry out the role assigned by Congress
- we have significantly hardened the system against the kind of losses seen in the financial crisis
- we shouldn't be trying to regulate risk out of existence
- we have a resilient financial system now
- private credit is relatively small part of large asset pool
- we are watching private credit closely
- for the Fed, it's important to stick to your knitting
- we're not trying to work against any administration or politican
- it's hard to build great democratic institutions, easier to bring them down
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| 30 Mar 2026 |
14:41 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG news, Fed's Chairman Powell says :
- there are tension between Fed's two objectives
- tension between objectives
-= makes sense in this time that there is not unanimity
- overall the research trends to find that buying long-term assets lowers rates and supports the economy
- I'd be in the camp that there is something to that
- we haven't really seen the downside risks to large balance sheet that many had predicted
- will get inflation back to 2%
- we are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on sustained basis
- tariff inflations is a one-time price increase, adding a half to full percentage point to inflation
- the tariff inflation is likely a one-time price increase, adding 0.5% to 1.0% to inflation
- events in Middle East affects gas prices
- policy in good place to wait and see how current situation plays out
- tendency is to look through supply shocks but must keep eye on inflation expectations
- inflation expectations appear to be well-anchored
- not facing yet the question of what to do
- we don't know what economic effects of current situation will be
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