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Market Review on 02 Jul 2009 21:16 GMT

Dollar and Japanese yen rise broadly as weak U.S. jobs data increased demand for safe-haven assets

Dollar rallied against a basket of currencies except Japanese yen after the key monthly U.S. employment report showed employers shed 467,000 jobs in June, more than consensus forecast of 363,000 cut, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.5%, the highest since 1983, renewing widespread concerns over the pace of the economic recovery’s pace. U.S. Treasury bonds rose and global stocks tumbled around 2-3% as the worse-than-expected data raised risk aversion, sparking active unwinding of yen carry trades as well as liquidation of higher-yieldi ...
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Daily Market Outlook

Update Time: 02 Jul 2009 08:12 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.4097

Despite yesterday's resumption of upmove to 1.4202, subsequent stronger-than-expected retreat in with the greenback's rebound versus other European currencies suggests a temporary top has been formed there and correction of the erratic rise from 1.3748 towards 1.4020/30 and 1.4000 cannot be ruled out before prospect of a rebound later.  
  
On the upside, above 1.4170/75 would revive bullishness for a re-test of yesterday's high at 1.4202 and then towards 1.4250/60.
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DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY

All times in GMT    
Last Update At 03/07/2009 00:04 GMT
Trend Daily Chart Daily Indicators 21 HR EMA 55 HR EMA
Sideways Turning down 96.12 96.26
Trend Hourly Chart Hourly Indicators 13 HR RSI 14 HR DMI
Near term down Falling 34 -ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance Support
97.20 - 19 June high
97.00 - 01 July high
96.27 - Hourly chart
95.70 - Y'day's low
95.31 - 30 June low
94.88 - 23 June low
       USD/JPY - 95.86 .. Although dlr ratcheted higher fm last week's low at 
94.88 to 97.00 this Wednesday, y'day's selloff to 95.70 due to intra-day active 
broad-based unwinding of yen carry trades following the release of much-worse-
than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls (-476k vs forecast of -355k) confirms 
aforesaid erratic rise has ended there n weakness to chart obj. at 95.31 is 
seen, however, dlr needs to penetrate sup at 95.04 to signal early decline fm 
98.90 has finally resumed, then swift drop to 94.44 n re-test of key daily sup 
at 93.85 (May low) wud follow later next week.
       Selling on intra-day recovery is therefore the 'obvious' strategy as 
regional bourses (AsiaPac & later Europe) are expected to open lower n remain 
under pressure. Despite trading abv NY low of 95.70, upside shud falter well 
below 96.27 (previous sup, now res) n bring resumption of aforeasaid decline to 
indicated downside target n only a firm break abv this res lvl wud prolong cur- 
rent choppy consolidatioon, risk stronger gain to 95.55/60 but good selling 
interest below 97.00 shud keep dlr's upside below there today.

 
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Update Time: 02 Jul 2009 23:49GMT

DAILY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - 1.6340

Although cable resumed this week's major fall fm
09' top at 1.6745 to 1.6330 in Europe, the marginal
weakness to 1.6323 in NY n subsequent recovery sug-
gest 'choppy' trading is likely b4 decline resumes
to 1.6290/00 but reckon 1.6231 wud hold today.

Exit previous short n sell again on recovery as
only abv 1.6465 signals temp. low made, 1.6541/46.

Rate: 1.6340
Strategy: Exit short n sell at 1.6400
Position: Short at 1.6410
Objective: 1.6300
Stop-Loss: 1.6450
Resistance: 1.6430/1.6546/1.6605
Support: 1.6330/1.6265/1.6231
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Market Moving News

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All times in GMT    
2 Jul 2009 11:17 Eur/usd - 1.4060...Another piece of euro-negative news has rocked the single currency, with Moody's downgrading Ireland's credit rating to AA1 fm AAA n setting the outlook to 'negative'. Traders will focus will be President Trichet's news conference (for any changes in the quantitative easing measures), as well as the important U.S. employment report at 12:30GMT. Dow futures are currently in negative territory...
2 Jul 2009 10:38 Eur/usd - 1.4076...Euro has come under pressure ahead of the ECB rate decision at 11:45GMT (to be followed by ECB President Trichet's press conference at 12:30GMT), with some traders citing the earlier release of eurozone unemployment rate (which rose by more than expected to a 10-year high of 9.5%) as another reason to offload long euro positions. Bids are likely to emerge at 1.4040/50 n also 1.4000 with stops placed below latter lvl. Offers are noted fm 1.4130 up to 1.4160...
2 Jul 2009 09:33 Usd/jpy - 96.62...There is little reaction at the moment to the breaking news that North Korea has fired two short-range missiles, as reported by South Korea's Yonhap news agency n also confirmed by South Korea's Defence ministry...
2 Jul 2009 08:41 Gbp/usd - 1.6346...Cable collapsed to 1.6330 (taking out stops at 1.6400 n 1.6380) on active cross selling in sterling with st specs finally successful in taking out the eur/gbp lvl of 0.8600. BOE's Besley was quoted as saying that it is too soon to speculate on the exact trigger for unwinding quantitative easing n that it is premature to give a definite assessment of the macroeconomic effectiveness of quantitative easing. Bids (for profit taking purposes) are likely to emerge in the region of 1.6270-1.6300 while offers are noted at 1.6400 n 1.6440/50 (fair-size)...
2 Jul 2009 07:56 Usd/chf - 1.0813...Usd/chf n eur/chf have jumped to as high as 1.0827 n 1.5245 respectively on comments fm SNB board member Thomas Jordan, who said that the central bank is ready to continue interventions to fight the rise in the Swiss franc. He also states that the SNB is in position of strength as it pursues massive quantitative easing...
2 Jul 2009 05:36 Gbp/usd - 1.6462...Cable followed euro lower in Asia this morning n reached an intra-day low of 1.6452 (almost 100 points below y'day's high at 1.6546 n well off this week's high at 1.6745). St specs have been targeting the 0.8600 lvl in eur/gbp recently (option-related stops are building up abv there) n hence offers in sterling are noted at 1.6500/10 n 1.6540/50 (fair-size). On the downside, a mixture of bids n stops is tipped at 1.6390/00...
 

ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR 03/07/2009

All times in GMT    
Time Country Indicator Actual Forecast Range Previous Revised
U.S. Market Holiday
0715 Swiss CPI M/M Jun 0.1% -0.2/0.3 0.2%
0715 Swiss CPI Y/Y Jun -1.0% -1.3/-0.8 -1.0%
0758 EU PMI service Jun 44.5 44.3/44.7 44.8
0800 U.K. Halifax hse prices M/M Jun -0.7% -2.9/0.2 2.6%
0800 U.K. Halifax hse prices 3m Y/Y Jun -14.7% -15.4/-11.1 -16.3%
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