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Update Time: 03 Sep 2010 14:05GMT

DAILY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.2880+

Euro's rebound fm 1.2776 y'day suggests pullback
fm Wed's 1.2856 high has possibly ended n recent
erratic rise fm 1.2588 to correct the early fall fm
1.3334 wud resume twd 1.2890/00, 'loss of momentum'
is likely to cap euro below res at 1.2923 today.

Hold long for this move, stop below 1.2776 as
break may risk stronger retracement to 1.2690/00.

Rate: +1.2880+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 1.2810
Objective: +1.2880+
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.2875/1.2923/1.2961
Support: 1.2809/1.2776/1.2744
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Daily Market Outlook

Update Time: 03 Sep 2010 01:41 GMT

USD/JPY - 84.38

Although dollar's cross-inspired selloff from Monday's 85.91 high to 83.66 earlier suggests correction from last week's 15-year low at 83.58 has ended, subsequent rebound to 84.67 suggests choppy trading sideways trading is in store and above said 84.67 resistance would extend gain to 84.90/00 but reckon 85.20/25 would cap upside.  
  
On the downside, below 83.66 would signal downtrend has resumed and further weakness towards measured objective at 83.10 would follow.
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Market Review on 03 Sep 2010 21:50 GMT

Dollar falls broadly as better-than-expected U.S. jobs data boosts risk appetite

The greenback dropped against most major currencies on Friday as better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls eased recent worries on U.S. economic recovery and boosted demand for risky assets and higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar. 
 
Although the greenback traded narrowly in Asia and European morning, the pair jumped to 85.23 immediately after release of better-than-expected key U.S. jobs data. However, dollar retreated from there on profit-taking together with cross buying in yen versus other European currencies and later  ...
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DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY

All times in GMT    
Last Update At 02/09/2010 23:42 GMT
Trend Daily Chart Daily Indicators 21 HR EMA 55 HR EMA
Down Falling 84.26 84.31
Trend Hourly Chart Hourly Indicators 13 HR RSI 14 HR DMI
Sideways Sideways 52 +ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation to continue
Resistance Support
85.15 - Hourly chart
84.89 - Hourly chart
84.67 - Wednesday's NY high
84.00 - Yesterday's low
83.58 - Last Tue's low
83.10 - 61.8% proj. of 88.12-83.58 fm 85.91
       USD/JPY - 84.30.. Dlr spent a lackluster day y'day trading 'inside' Wed's 
range of 83.66-84.67 as market's focus has turned to other major currencies.
       Although another day of sideways consolidation is envisaged in Asian n 
European morning sessions, the release of key U.S. jobs data later today hope- 
fully wud move dlr outside the aforesaid near term range.
       Look at the daily chart, despite the bullish converging signals on the 
daily indicators at last week's 15-year low at 83.58, as price is currently trad 
ing below the 13-day n 55-day emas, suggesting as long as Monday's high at 85.91 
holds, dlr's downtrend shud reassert itself n head twd 83.10, being 61.8% proj. 
of the MT intermediate fall fm 88.12-83.58 measured fm 85.91, however, as hourly 
oscillators' readings wud display prominent bullish convergences on next decline
, reckon 82.93 (50% proj. of 124.14-87.10 fm 101.45) wud hold fm here.
       Today, as long as y'day's 84.00 low holds, consolidation with initial 
upside bias is seen, abv 84.67 wud bring stronger gain to 85.15/25 but reckon 
res at 85.91 wud remain intact. Below 84.00 may yield weakness twd 83.58.

Click on the chart to enlarge image

charts offered by ProRealTime.com
 
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Market Moving News

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All times in GMT    
3 Sep 2010 09:00 Eur/usd - 1.2830 ... Eurozone retail sales rose by 0.1% m/m n 1.1% y/y versus the expectations of 0.2% n 0.6% respectively. However, euro little changed n further sideways trading wud be seen until U.S. opening as investors n traders are waiting for the release of important U.S. jobs data at 12:30GMT.
3 Sep 2010 08:30 Gbp/usd - 1.5415 ... U.K. CIPS services PMI came in at 51.3, much weaker than economists' forecast of 52.9. Despite intra-day brief bounce to 1.5452, the British pound fell after the data. Offers are now tipped at 1.5445/50 n 1.5475/80 whilst bids are located at 1.5385/90 n 1.5355/60.
3 Sep 2010 08:04 Eur/usd - 1.2828 ... The single currency rebounded briefly fm intra-day low of 1.2808 to around 1.2833 on slightly stronger-than-expected eurozone services PMI which came in at 55.9 versus the expectation of 55.6. However, trading is relatively thin ahead of the release of eurozone retail sales which is expected to rise by 0.2% m/m n 0.6% y/y respectively. Bids remain at 1.2800/05 whilst offers are tipped at 1.2840/45.
3 Sep 2010 05:56 Gbp/usd - 1.5415 ... Despite y'day's selloff to 1.5350, the British pound rebounded to 1.5428 on short-covering n in part due to cross unwinding in sterling. Bids by European names are now located 1.5390/95 n 1.5350/60 with stops building up below 1.5320/25 whilst offers are tipped at 1.5450-80. U.K. will release its CIPS services PMI at 08:28GMT. However, investors are focusing on the important U.S. non-farm payrolls data which is expected to decrease by 100,000 in August, after dropping by 131,000 the prior month.
3 Sep 2010 05:45 Eur/usd - 1.2822 ... Although ECB said y'day that eurozone economy will probably expand between 1.4% n 1.8% this year, revising previous forecast range of between 0.7% n 1.3%, the single currency moved sideways in Asia n further consolidation inside nr term established range of 1.2776-1.2856 wud continue as European traders are waiting for the release of a series of eurozone economic data, including services PMI n retail sales data at 07:58GMT n 09:00GMT respectively. Bids are located at 1.2800/05 whilst offers are tipped at 1.2845/50 with stops seen abv 1.2860.
3 Sep 2010 05:09 USD/JPY - 84.22.. All quiet on the eastern front following several big swings in the beginning of the week as all eyes n ears are switched to the key U.S. jobs report later in the day (market is also paying attention to the private payrolls number as recent overall payrolls data is expected to have been skewed by the loss of government census hiring, among other factors). 
 
Ichiro Ozawa, who is challenging Japanese PM Naoto Kan in this month's DPJ's presidential election said today on a TV Asahi program that intervention in currency markets to stem the yen's appreciation is a possibility, he also added Japan can also use the strong yen to secure resources globally.  
 
In other earlier news, a report fm China Securities Journal, an official newspaper disclosed the Chinese government's currency reserves, which stand as being the world's largest at $2.45 trillion, are held in 65% in usd, 26% in euros, 5% in sterling and 3% in yen. 
Recently, market source reported China has been buyer of euro govt. debts as well as Japanese govt. bonds, S. Korean govt. debts n a small holding in the Malaysian ringgit but as usd remains as a large component (two thirds) in the C.B.'s portfolio, it appears unlikely China is able to make any significant shift out of usd as y'day's report by BIS showed Uncle Sam remains the major dominant ccy in the world.
 

ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR 06/09/2010

All times in GMT    
Time Country Indicator Actual Forecast Range Previous Revised
0400 Japan BoJ 2-day meeting starts t'day
0900 U.K. Halifax hse prices 3m Y/Y Aug *4.4%* *4.0/4.8* 4.9%
0900 U.K. Halifax hse prices M/M Aug *-0.5%* *-0.7/0.0* 0.6%
U.K. * To be released on 6-10 SEP
1500 EU EU's Finance Chiefs' meeting
U.S. Market Holiday
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