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| Intra-day Market Moving News |
| 28 Jul 2025 |
09:31 |
Continues from previous update...
"This (trade deal) can help to ease concerns and regain confidence," Kazimir said. "We now have more clarity, but we will need time to see to what extent this new environment will affect inflation."
Weighing in on a key debate among policymakers, Kazimir said he did not see a risk that inflation would now undershoot the ECB's 2% target, much like it did in the pre-pandemic decade.
Price growth is seen dipping below 2% next year and only rebounding in 2027, raising worries among some governors that once inflation is well below 2%, expectations also fall and could perpetuate weak price growth.
"I see no looming spectre of a sustained undershooting of inflation," Kazimir, an outspoken policy hawk, said. "The expected dips below target in the coming year should be temporary."
He added that trade turmoil also created upside risks for inflation, particularly if global supply chains were realigned, creating bottlenecks.
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| 28 Jul 2025 |
09:30 |
EUR/USD - 1.1673... LSEG reported the European Central Bank is not in any hurry to lower borrowing costs again and it would take a major unexpected economic shift to make a case for action in September, Slovak policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Monday.
The ECB kept rates unchanged last week as widely expected and offered a moderately upbeat assessment on the bloc's economy, prompting investors to scale back their bets on further policy easing.
"When it comes to incoming data, I don't expect anything significant to happen that would force my hand to act as soon as September," Kazimir said in a blog post. "It would take something like clear signs of unravelling in the labour market for me to act."
This assessment aligns with comments from ECB sources that the bar for a cut in September is high after the bank has already halved rates to 2% since June 2024.
Sunday's EU trade deal with the U.S. was clearly a positive since it reduces uncertainty for businesses, but the impact on prices, the ECB's chief focus, was still unclear.
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| 28 Jul 2025 |
09:05 |
EUR/USD - 1.1677... LSEG reported the European Union has agreed to cut its car import duty to 2.5% as part of the framework trade deal between the EU and United States, said an EU official on Monday.
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| 27 Jul 2025 |
23:57 |
Continues from previous update...
No similar breakthrough is expected in the U.S.-China talks, but trade analysts said that another 90-day extension of a tariff and export control truce struck in mid-May was likely.
An extension of that length would prevent further escalation and help create conditions for a potential meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in late October or early November.
Spokespersons for the White House and U.S. Trade Representative's office did not immediately respond to requests for comment on a South China Morning Post report quoting unnamed sources as saying the two sides would refrain from introducing new tariffs or take other steps that could escalate the trade war for another 90 days.
Trump's administration is poised to impose new sectoral tariffs that will impact China, including on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, ship-to-shore cranes and other products.
"We're very close to a deal with China. We really sort of made a deal with China, but we'll see how that goes," Trump told reporters before his meeting with von der Leyen, providing no further details.
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| 27 Jul 2025 |
23:56 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG earlier reported senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators meet in Stockholm on Monday to tackle longstanding economic disputes at the centre of a trade warbetween the world's top two economies, aiming to extend a truce keeping sharply higher tariffs at bay.
China is facing an August 12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement with President Donald Trump's administration, after Beijing and Washington reached a preliminary deal in June to end weeks of escalating tit-for-tat tariffs.
Without an agreement, global supply chains could face renewed turmoil from duties exceeding 100%.
The Stockholm talks, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, come right on the heels of Trump's biggest trade deal yet, with the European Union accepting a 15% tariff on its goods exports to the U.S. and agreeing to make significant EU purchases of U.S. energy and military equipment.
That deal struck with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday in Scotland also calls for $600 billion in investments in the U.S. by the EU, Trump told reporters.
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| 27 Jul 2025 |
23:55 |
EUR/USD - 1.1757... Weekend news, LSEG reported European Union leaders agreed to 15% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and accepted that the U.S. would stick to 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, a U.S. administration official said on Sunday, adding the EU wanted to continue discussing steel and aluminum tariffs.
President Donald Trump suggested that the EU buy $1 trillion of U.S. energy during his term, but the deal was settled at $750 billion, according to the official, who also said the EU agreed to open markets to all but a few products.
The United States struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union on Sunday.
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| 24 Jul 2025 |
20:50 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday it is not necessary to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and that such a step would mark a big move.
"To do that is a big move and I just don't think it's necessary," Trump told reporters. Trump toured the Federal Reserve building in Washington on Thursday.
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| 24 Jul 2025 |
20:44 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he had a "good meeting" with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and that there was no tension in their discussion.
"I thought we had a good meeting. No, there was no tension," Trump told reporters. Trump toured the Federal Reserve building in Washington on Thursday.
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| 24 Jul 2025 |
13:46 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported U.S. business activity picked up in July, but companies asked higher prices for goods and services, supporting economists' views that inflation will accelerate in the second half of the year mainly because of tariffs on imports.
Despite the increase in activity this month, the survey from S&P Global on Thursday also showed sentiment among businesses remained downbeat, which it said "primarily reflected broad-based concerns over tariffs and cuts to state funding following recent federal government policy changes."
S&P Global's flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 54.6 this month, the highest level since December, from 52.9 in June. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector.
The improvement came from the services sector, where the flash PMI surged to 55.2 from 52.9 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI inching up to 53.0. The survey's flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, the first contraction since December, from 52.9 in June.
Manufacturing received a bump from front-loading of activity ahead of tariffs as well as from the protectionist nature of the duties. But S&P Global noted that "any protectionist benefits of import tariffs were often outweighed by concerns over higher prices and rising costs." Economists polled had forecast the manufacturing PMI easing to 52.7.
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| 24 Jul 2025 |
13:18 |
EUR/USD - 1.1754... LSEG news, ECB's Lagarde continues to say :
- we are in wait and watch situation
- decision was unanimous
- risk assessment was broadly shared
- widely shared that we have to work with data as it comes in
- if trade tensions resolved in short order, it would clear some uncertainty
- plenty of liquidity in banking system
- we are in a good place to hold and watch how risks develop in next few months
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| 24 Jul 2025 |
12:50 |
EUR/USD - 1.1738... LSEG news, ECB's Lagarde begins press conference and says :
- survey data point to overall modest expansion
- higher tariffs and stronger euro are expected, makes it harder for firms to invest
- strong labour market, rising real incomes, solid private sector balance sheets support consumption
- defense and infrastructure investment should bolster growth
- indicators of underlying inflation suggest inflation will stabilise at target
- longer-term inflation expectations continue to stand at around 2%
- risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside
- outlook for euro area inflation is more uncertain than usual
- we don't target exchange rate, we monitor
- baseline holds
- we are in a good place
- our projections point to inflation stabilizing at target in medium term
- wages are heading in the right direction
- unit profit continues to buffer wage increase
- growth in line if not better than baseline
- confident that inflationary shock behind us
- first of all wait, elements will pan out in next few months
- we're not going to be moved away from minor deviation from target (in 2026)
- you will always find two or three Governors very concerned about undershooting
- retaliation is optional, not definite
- disinflationary or inflationary impact of tariffs cannot yet be determined
- there will probably be bottlenecks as result of tariffs
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| 24 Jul 2025 |
12:39 |
EUR/USD - 1.1739... LSEG reported European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, speaking in China, said on Thursday that the European Union's primary focus in talks with the United States is to achieve a negotiated solution on trade and tariffs.
She added that intense political discussions are ongoing with Washington, saying: "All instruments remain on the table until we have a satisfactory result".
She also said that the EU's relationship with China stands on its own merits and is independent of the actions or the issues it has with others.
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| 24 Jul 2025 |
12:38 |
EUR/USD - 1.1742... LSEG reported European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggested on Thursday that the EU may need to reduce its level of openness to Chinese imports without more reciprocity from Beijing, adding that Chinese leaders had started to look into this issue and expressed their willingness to support more consumption.
"Unlike other major markets, Europe keeps its market open to Chinese goods. This reflects our long-standing commitment to rules-based trade. However, this openness is not matched by China," von der Leyen told reporters after meeting with Chinese leaders in Beijing.
She added that overcapacity, subsidised production that did not match domestic demand and the restriction on Chinese imports by other markets, which in turn put pressure on the EU's single market, were also issues to be addressed.
"We need to see progress on this issue because without progress, it would be very difficult for the European Union to maintain its current level of openness," she added.
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| 24 Jul 2025 |
12:36 |
USD/MAJORS... LSEG reported the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to stable labor market conditions, though sluggish hiring is making it harder for many laid-off workers to land new opportunities.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ended July 19, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 226,000 claims for the latest week.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.955 million during the week ending July 12, the claims report showed. The so-called continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for July's unemployment rate.
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| 24 Jul 2025 |
12:34 |
EUR/USD - 1.1745... LSEG news, EU's Costa says :
- EU and China uphold UN charter and respecting internationally recognized borders
- we expressed the same wish to reach a just and lasting peace as soon as possible
- China, as permanent UN security council member, has special responsibility to push for ceasefire
- we ask China to pay attention to their exports to Russia to avoid dual-use goods for war purposes
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