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| Intra-day Market Moving News |
| 29 Mar 2023 |
09:59 |
EUR/USD - 1.0841... Reuters reported inflation in the euro zone has been too high for too long and the European Central Bank should continue raising interest rates, but possibly at a slower pace, ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Wednesday.
"We have a baseline scenario that we presented last week, and according to this scenario I think that the inflation we are working with is too high and has been with us for too long," he told a news conference broadcast by the Slovak central bank.
"I personally think that if we do not significantly veer from the baseline scenario, we should not let up, that means we should continue raising interest rates, maybe at a slower pace, but we should continue."
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| 29 Mar 2023 |
09:12 |
Continues from previous update...
Lane argued that even if inflation is still high, earlier stages of production show moderating price pressures and these will eventually feed through to consumer prices.
"If you look at the earlier stages of production, at the farm gate prices, at the prices of the food ingredients, you will recognise: all of these have turned around," Lane said.
The ECB has raised rates by a combined 350 basis points since July but has provided no guidance for its May 4 meeting on account of the financial turmoil.
Lane added that a recession is not necessary to bring inflation down and a soft landing of the economy was possible.
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| 29 Mar 2023 |
09:11 |
EUR/USD - 1.0840... Reuters reported the recent turmoil in the euro zone bank sector is likely to dissipate and European Central Bank interest rates will then have to keep rising to contain inflation, ECB chief economist Philip Lane told a German newspaper.
Lane said that banks were well capitalised with ample liquidity so there is no direct read-across from U.S. and Swiss banking tensions to the 20 nation currency bloc.
"Under our baseline scenario, in order to make sure inflation comes down to 2%, more hikes will be needed," Die Zeit quoted Lane as saying on Wednesday. "If the financial stress we see is non-zero, but turns out to be still fairly limited, interest rates will still need to go up."
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| 29 Mar 2023 |
06:12 |
EUR/USD - 1.0830... Reuters reported German consumer sentiment is set to nudge up in April as energy prices have relented somewhat from record highs, though a full recovery is not in sight anytime soon, showed a GfK institute survey on Wednesday.
The institute forecast its consumer sentiment index to improve to -29.5 heading into April from a revised reading of -30.6 in March, slightly below the expectations of analysts polled by Reuters of -29.0.
April's reading, rising for the sixth month in a row, shows sentiment is on its way towards recovery, GfK said, but the pace of growth has slowed noticeably compared with previous months.
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| 28 Mar 2023 |
15:34 |
USD/MAJORS - Reuters reported U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly increased in March, but Americans are becoming a bit anxious about the labor market, a survey showed on Tuesday.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose to 104.2 this month from a reading of 103.4 in February. The cutoff date for the survey was March 20, about 10 days after the failure of two regional banks. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 101.0.
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| 28 Mar 2023 |
14:07 |
USD/MAJORS - Reuters reported U.S. single-family home prices moderated further on an annual basis in January, which together with declining mortgage rates could pull buyers back into the housing market.
The SnP CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, increased 3.8% year-on-year in January, data showed on Tuesday, marking the ninth straight month of decelerating annual home price gains. That followed a 5.6% advance in December.
The moderate rise also reflected last year's large increase dropping out of the calculation. Monthly prices fell 0.2% in January after adjusting for seasonal fluctuations.
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| 28 Mar 2023 |
13:37 |
USD/MAJORS - Reuters reported the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened modestly in February as exports declined, potentially setting up trade to be a drag on economic growth in the first quarter.
The trade deficit increased 0.6% to $91.6 billion, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the goods trade deficit little changed at $91.0 billion.
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| 28 Mar 2023 |
11:39 |
GBP/USD - 1.2316... Reuters reported Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday the central bank would lower the countercyclical capital buffer if it thought credit supply to the economy was threatened.
Bailey told parliament's Treasury Committee the bank saw some evidence of tightening in credit conditions but this was not critical at the moment.
"What would we do if we if we felt that capacity to support credit in the economy was compromised in any way or threatened? Well, the first thing we do ... is to lower what we call the CCyB, the countercyclical capital buffer," he said.
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| 28 Mar 2023 |
09:07 |
EUR/USD - 1.0818... Reuters reported the European Central Bank's top supervisor said on Tuesday he was concerned by a selloff in Deutsche Bank DBKGn.DE shares late last week it showed investors were on edge and could be spooked by moves in the small market for credit default swaps (CDS).
"What concerned me really was the amount of nervousness, disquiet that I perceived in the market and among investors," Andrea Enria told a conference in Frankfurt.
"There are markets like the single-name CDS market which are very opaque, very shallow and very illiquid and with a few million (euros) the fear spreads to the trillion-euro-assets banks and contaminates stock prices and also deposit outflows," he added, calling for these instruments to be centrally cleared.
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| 28 Mar 2023 |
02:21 |
USD/JPY - 130.81... Reuters news, BOJ's Governor Kuroda says :
- premature to debate exit from easy policy as more time needed to stably, sustainably hit price target
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| 28 Mar 2023 |
00:45 |
AUD/USD - 0.6675... Reuters reported Australian retail sales eked out a meagre gain in February after wild swings around year-end holidays, indicating shoppers are reining in spending in the face of higher costs of living and rising interest rates.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.2% in February from January, when they picked up a revised 1.8%. Sales of A$35.14 billion ($23.42 billion) were 6.4% higher than a year earlier.
The result was just a touch above median forecasts of a rise of 0.1%. Estimates from analysts ranged from minus 1.2% to plus 1.3%.
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| 27 Mar 2023 |
17:17 |
GBP/USD - 1.2275... Reuters then reported Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday that the full effect of the higher level of interest rates was still to work its way through financial markets and the real economy.
"When we look at the outlook for inflation today, we have to recognise that the full effect of the higher level of Bank Rate is still to work its way through financial markets and the real economy," Bailey said in the text of a speech at the London School of Economics.
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| 27 Mar 2023 |
17:13 |
GBP/USD - 1.2274... Reuters news, BoE's Bailey says :
- we have to be alert to any signs of persistent inflationary pressures
- if they become evident, further monetary tightening would be required
- MPC's response will be firmly anchored in the emerging evidence
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| 27 Mar 2023 |
14:32 |
EUR/USD - 1.0786... Reuters reported wage growth in the euro zone is not fuelling inflation and the relatively quick nominal wage increases being recorded now are still compatible with monetary policy, Portuguese central bank Governor Mario Centeno said on Monday.
"We of course have higher wage increases than before," Centeno told a forum hosted by think-tank OMFIF. "But we don't have inflated wages going after inflation."
"This catching up that we see today, still with negative real wage increases, is compatible with what we would expect for monetary policy purposes."
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| 27 Mar 2023 |
08:10 |
EUR/USD - 1.0764... Reuters news, Ifo economist says :
- winter recession in Germany has become more unlikely
- export expectations in industry have fallen slightly
- proportion of businesses who want to raise prices has fallen
- 41.6% of businesses complained of supply bottlenecks in march
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