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22 Feb 2019 17:01 Continues from previous update... 
 
It will also review what new tools it might use to combat any future downturns, including tools that it rejected during the most recent crisis like capping Treasury yields as part of a bid to lower borrowing costs. 
 
This part of the review will also include a reassessment of how effective the Fed's bond-buying programs were in fending off low inflation and encouraging hiring during and after the Great Recession. 
 
The Fed's review will also include a new look at the central bank's communications around policy, he said.
22 Feb 2019 17:00 USD/MAJORS... Reuters reported the Federal Reserve will keep an open mind as it begins a broad review this year of its monetary policy framework that could result in changes to how it goes about ensuring that prices remain stable and employment plentiful, Fed vice chair Richard Clarida said on Friday. 
 
The Fed will make the results of its review public in the first half of 2020, he said. 
 
In a series of community meetings and academic conferences this year, Clarida said, the Fed will review its current flexible inflation-targeting approach, possibly tweaking it to take into better account what has been a very long period of low inflation. 
 
22 Feb 2019 16:29 USD/MAJORS... Reuters news, Fed's Bullard says : 
 
- connection between low unemployment and price looks weak 
- inflation targeting 'has been crazy successful' 
- we can't just look at unemployment for clues on future inflation; says we can't be complacent 
 
22 Feb 2019 16:24 EUR/USD - 1.1339... Reuters news, ECB's Draghi says : 
 
- being outside the EU might lead to more policy independence, but not necessarily to greater sovereignty 
- outside euro, countries would be more exposed to monetary policy spillovers from abroad - not least from the ECB 
 
22 Feb 2019 16:21 USD/MAJORS... Reuters news, U.S. Chamber of Commerce official says : 
 
- gaps do remain in U.S.-China trade talks, particularly around structural issues 
- wants end to tariffs between U.S., China as soon as possible 
- cost of tariffs continues to mount 
- don't expect final trade deal to be done this week but we are seeing progress 
- March 1 deadline not as important as having comprehensive trade deal 
- haven't heard much about digital trade and data flows in trade talks and they can't be forgotten in the mix 
- does not expect any further tariffs, increase in current tariffs if talks are constructive 
- expects trade talks to go past March 1 deadline 
 
22 Feb 2019 16:02 USD/MAJORS... Reuters news, Fed's Williams says : 
 
- complacency applies on both sides of our inflation mandate goal 
- anchoring of inflation expectations has helped inflation become less persistent 
- we don't want to be complacent about inflation 
- the risks to inflation becoming unanchored are equal to the downside as to the upside 
- there is risk of inflation expectations falling if Fed misses inflation target decade after decade 
- inflation targeting approach does not pose credibility issues for Fed, but issues of feasibility 
 
22 Feb 2019 16:01 Continues from previous update... 
 
For 2018, the Fed said: "Consumer spending expanded at a strong rate for most of the second half ... though spending appears to have weakened toward year-end." 
 
Consumer and business confidence remains "favorable," but "some measures have softened since the fall," the Fed reported. "Domestic financial conditions for businesses and households have become less supportive of economic growth." 
 
The Fed noted to Congress that it would continue to reduce the size of its balance sheet, which had declined by about $260 billion since its last report to lawmakers, ending the year at close to $4 trillion. But the central bank also repeated its new openness to adjusting "any of the details" of its balance sheet plan if economic and financial conditions warrant. 
 
22 Feb 2019 16:00 USD/MAJORS... Reuters reported the U.S. economy maintained "solid" growth through the second half of 2018, likely expanding "just under" 3 percent for the year, though consumer and business spending had begun to weaken, the Federal Reserve said on Friday in its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. 
 
In a document that balanced its mostly positive outlook for a still growing economy against an array of emerging domestic and global risks, the U.S. central bank laid out why it had put further interest rate hikes on hold last month. 
 
From a "deteriorated" appetite for risk among investors to a slowdown in China, the outlook for policy is "more uncertain than earlier," the Fed said, noting "softer global and economic conditions." 
 
That may spill into the start of 2019, the Fed said, noting that the recent 35-day partial shutdown of the U.S. government "likely held down GDP growth in the first quarter of this year." 
 
22 Feb 2019 15:41 USD/MAJORS... Reuters news, Fed's Daly says : 
 
- I do not believe Phillips curve is dead 
- fear of inflation should not overly drive policy concerns 
- we should be vigilant on upside, downside risks to inflation 
- decline of employer-provided cost of living adjustments weakens link between wage, price growth 
- there are few signs that wage inflation is running away 
- wage growth is slowly ratcheting up 
- wage growth not moving in alarming manner 
- wage growth is not having much effect on price inflation 
- while U.S. healthcare industry used to be a boost to inflation, now is a bit of a drag 
- it is important to not be complacent but also not to be overly worried about inflation 
- inflation expectations matter more now than they used to 
- inflation has been below our target for a long time 
- Phillips curve remains a useful guide 
- complacency can go both ways on upside and downside inflation risks 
 
22 Feb 2019 15:39 EUR/USD - 1.1344... Reuters news, ECB's Villeroy says : 
 
- we need to assess the extend to which the recent slowdown and drop in inflation are temporary 
- if drags fade away, and if geopolitical risks recede, GDP growth could rebound form next spring or summer 
- should a downturn last beyond that horizon, we would be ready to adapt our monetary policy guidance 
- in this context, I still believe that the gradual normalisation of our monetary policy is desirable 
- on expiration of TLTRO programme, our policy cannot be designed according to the specific needs of some banks or jurisdictions 
- we should look at whole spectrum of possible tools, including various forms of LTRO, to decide on recalibration of conditions and maturities 
- if we had to use negative rates for a longer period than expected, we should study pragmatically how to contain possible adverse effects 
 
22 Feb 2019 15:16 Continues from previous update... 
 
Williams made the remarks in response to a paper released on Friday that argued that though upward price pressures are currently muted, the Fed needs to guard against the possibility that low unemployment rates and rising wages could eventually spark higher inflation, as it did in the 1960s. 
 
But unlike the 1960s, he said, inflation dynamics have changed so that even if prices surge temporarily, that increase does not get embedded into inflation expectations, keeping inflation from rising sustainably above healthy levels. 
 
Indeed, he said, inflation expectations are key to keeping inflation on track, and expectations are shaped in large part by experience. Inflation's recent track record of riding well below the Fed's 2-percent target is, therefore, concerning, he said. 
 
22 Feb 2019 15:15 USD/MAJORS... Reuters reported the Federal Reserve needs to make sure that tight labor markets do not spark a sustained surge in inflation, but equally that inflation expectations do not get stuck too low, New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said on Friday. 
 
The concern about excessively low inflation is remarkable in the context of a U.S. unemployment rate of 4 percent, well below what most economists believe is sustainable in the long run. Traditionally, economists have found that when labor markets run hot, eventually inflation will as well. 
 
That relationship may have changed, according to a spate of new research from within and outside of the Fed that some policymakers have used to justify the U.S. central bank's new stance of "patience" on interest rates despite very low unemployment. 
 
22 Feb 2019 14:34 USD/MAJORS... Reuters news, USDA official says : 
 
- U.S.-China trade talks "positive", but still no clarity from Beijing on intellectual property, technology transfer, structural changes 
 
22 Feb 2019 14:16 USD/JPY - 110.71... Reuters then reported Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank would "of course" consider easing monetary policy further if the economy lost momentum towards achieving its 2 percent inflation target, the Asahi newspaper reported on Friday. 
 
The BOJ has various options available to ease, including cutting interest rates and accelerating government bond purchases, and could combine them if needed, Kuroda was quoted as saying in the interview with the paper conducted on Thursday. 
 
22 Feb 2019 14:02 USD/JPY - 110.72... Reuters news, citing source fm Asahi newspaper, BOJ Gov Kuroda says : 
 
 
- BOJ will 'of course' mull additional easing if economy loses momentum towards hitting price goal 
- BOJ has various options available, or could combine them, if it need to ease policy further 
- if it needs to ease further, BOJ will opt for policy that is most appropriate for economy, prices and has lease side effects 
- inappropriate to change BOJ's current policy framework before achieving 2 PCT inflation 
 


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