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18 Apr 2019 23:47 Continues from previous update... 
 
An index the BOJ focuses on - the so-called core-core CPI that strips away the effect of both volatile food and energy costs - rose 0.4 percent in March, matching the annual increase in February. 
 
The central bank is in a bind. Years of heavy money printing have dried up bond market liquidity and hurt commercial banks' profits, stoking concerns that its massive easing programme is not sustainable. 
 
Subdued inflation has left the BOJ well behind its counterparts in dialling back stimulus, including the United States where monetary policy had a bigger impact. Some economists also argue the BOJ has little ammunition left to fight another serious economic downturn. 
 
18 Apr 2019 23:31 USD/JPY - 111.98.. Reuters just reported Japan's core consumer prices rose 0.8 percent in March from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday. 
 
The core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, compared with economists' median estimate for a 0.7 percent annual gain. 
 
Stripping away the effect of fresh food and energy, consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in March from a year ago. 
 
18 Apr 2019 17:04 USD/MAJORS... Reuters news, in an interview with WSJ, Fed's Kaplan says : 
 
- his confidence in growth is firm and has been building 
- global growth is still decelerating but China is stabilizing 
- current Fed funds rate is probably appropriate for U.S. economy, might be wildly accomdative 
 
18 Apr 2019 14:00 USD/MAJORS... Reuters reported U.S. business inventories increased in February and stock accumulation in the prior month was a bit stronger than initially estimated, suggesting inventory investment could contribute to economic growth in the first quarter. 
 
The Commerce Department said on Thursday that business inventories rose 0.3 percent in February. Data for January was revised slightly up to show inventories rising 0.9 percent instead of the 0.8 percent increase previously reported. 
 
Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product, and economists polled by Reuters had forecast stocks at businesses would rise 0.4 percent in February. 
 
Retail inventories climbed 0.3 percent in February after increasing 0.8 percent in January. Motor vehicle inventories gained 0.3 percent in February. 
 
18 Apr 2019 13:01 EUR/USD - 1.1240... Reuters then reported Italy's economy grew by around 0.1 percent in the first three months of 2019, the Bank of Italy said on Thursday, suggesting that the country has pulled clear of the recession it slipped into in the second half of 2018. 
 
In its quarterly economic bulletin, the central bank said industrial production had increased month-on-month both in January and February. "Our estimates indicate that this growth continued in March," it said. 
 
The bank cited the latest survey of analysts polled by Consensus Economics which pointed to growth of between -0.1 percent and +0.2 percent for this year. In December, they had forecast 2019 GDP growth of 0.7 percent for Italy. 
 
Economy Minister Giovanni Tria said on Wednesday that the government's downwardly revised forecast for economic growth of 0.2 percent this year reflected expectations of a slight recovery in the first half of 2019, followed by stronger growth. 
 
18 Apr 2019 13:00 EUR/USD - 1.1240... Reuters news, Bank of Italy says : 
 
- sees Italy GDP growth of around 0.1 percent Q/Q in Q1 2019 
- Italian industrial production returned to growth in Q1 2019 
- Italian industrial production probably rose for third straight month in March 
- gross NPL ratio for Italian banks under ECB supervision fell to 8.3 pct in Q4 2018 from 9.4 pct in Q3 
 
18 Apr 2019 12:32 USD/CAD - 1.3385... Reuters reported Canadian retail sales grew by 0.8 percent in February from January to C$50.62 billion ($37.85 billion), due largely to higher sales at general merchandise stores, as well as motor vehicle and parts dealers, Statistics Canada said on Thursday. 
 
Sales increased in five of 11 subsectors, representing 73 percent of retail trade. In volume terms, retail sales were up 0.2 percent. 
 
18 Apr 2019 12:31 USD/MAJORS... Reuters reported U.S. retail sales increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in March as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, the latest indication that economic growth picked up in the first quarter after a false start. 
 
The Commerce Department said on Thursday retail sales surged 1.6 percent last month. That was the biggest increase since September 2017 and followed an unrevised 0.2 percent drop in February. 
 
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would accelerate 0.9 percent in March. Retail sales in March advanced 3.6 percent from a year ago. 
 
18 Apr 2019 12:30 USD/MAJORS... Reuters reported the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell to more than a 49-1/2-year low last week, pointing to sustained strength in the economy. 
 
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 192,000 for the week ended April 13, the lowest level since September 1969, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported. 
 
Claims have now declined for five straight weeks. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims would rise to 205,000 in the latest week. 
 
18 Apr 2019 11:18 Continues fm prev. update... 
 
For the first time, the BOJ will also release forecasts for fiscal 2021 that will project inflation to move above 1.5 percent but fall short of 2 percent, the sources said on condition of anonymity. 
 
"Inflation is holding up but isn't accelerating much either," said one source. "Inflation will gradually head toward 2 percent but the pace will be moderate at best." 
 
With its 2 percent inflation target seen out of reach, the BOJ will join other major central banks that are being forced to delay plans to end crisis-mode policies due to soft inflation and growing signs of a global economic slowdown. 
 
18 Apr 2019 11:15 USD/JPY - 111.92... Reuters reported the Bank of Japan is expected to forecast next week that inflation will remain below its 2 percent target through the fiscal year that ends in March 2022, sources say, a sign its massive stimulus will stay in place for the foreseeable future. 
 
The estimate highlights the dilemma the BOJ faces as subdued inflation forces it to maintain its ultra-easy policy, even as years of near-zero interest rates strain financial institutions. 
 
In quarterly projections due next week, the central bank may slightly cut its growth and price forecasts for the current fiscal year, ending in March 2020, due to headwinds from slowing overseas growth, say sources familiar with its thinking. 
 
18 Apr 2019 10:32 GBP/USD - 1.3007... The British pound proved quite tricky to trade today as despite initial gain to 1.3053 ahead of European open, price dropped in tandem with euro to 1.3010 in European morning. Cable then staged a recovery to 1.3034 on the back of robust UK retail sales, however, lack of follow-through buying triggered another fall and price penetrated said 1.3010 support to 1.3003 and continues to remain under pressure. 
 
Cable's intra-day weakness suggests decline from last Friday's high at 1.3133 to retrace upmove from April's low at 1.2987 remains in progress and marginal weakness from here is likely, however, bids at 1.2980/90 should contain downside and yield a rebound later. 
 
18 Apr 2019 08:32 Continues from previous update... 
 
In monthly terms, sales jumped by 1.1 percent, defying the median forecast of a fall of 0.3 percent in the Reuters poll. 
 
In the first three months of 2019, a smoother reading of spending patterns, sales grew by 1.6 percent compared with the previous three months, the strongest increase since August 2018. 
 
18 Apr 2019 08:31 GBP/USD - 1.3025... Reuters reported British shoppers ignored worries about an impending Brexit deadline and spent heavily in March, official data showed on Thursday. 
 
Retail sales volumes surged by the most in nearly two-and-a-half years in annual terms, leaping by 6.7 percent, the Office for National Statistics said. 
 
That was way above all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists. 
 
18 Apr 2019 08:01 Continues from previous update... 
 
The downturn was again led by the bloc's manufacturing industry. While its PMI rose to 47.8 from March's 47.5, it spent its third consecutive month below the break-even mark and was below a median forecast for 47.9. 
 
A PMI covering the bloc's dominant service industry fell further than expected. It dropped to 52.5 from March's 53.3, well below the median forecast in a Reuters poll for 53.2. 
 


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