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| 即市 市场最新消息 |
| 9 May 2024 |
11:51 |
GBP/USD - 1.2466... Reuters reported Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said it was "encouraging" that inflation was expected to be close to target in the coming months.
"Inflation has now fallen to just about 3% and we expect it to be close to the target in the coming months. That's encouraging," Bailey told a press conference on Thursday.
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| 9 May 2024 |
11:51 |
GBP/USD - 1.2471... Reuters reported Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said future cuts to rates may need to be more than those which are currently priced in, in order to ensure inflation does not fall below target.
"It's likely that we will need to cut bank rates over the coming quarters and make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive over the forecast period - possibly more so than currently priced into market rates. This will be consistent with ensuring that inflation does not fall noticeably below target at the end point of the forecast," he told a press conference on Thursday.
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| 9 May 2024 |
11:48 |
GBP/USD - 1.2463... Reuters news, Bank of England's Governor Bailey continues to say :
- points to judgement on persistence of inflation, when asked about June rate cut
- each meeting is a new decision for rates
- market moves in interest rate expectations have been dominated by U.S. moves
- UK inflation dynamics are different to U.S.
- there has been some decoupling recently between UK and US market rate expectations
- I look quite closely at pass through of costs into prices
- very hard to know if labour force participation has gone up or down, given problems with ONS data
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| 9 May 2024 |
11:31 |
GBP/USD - 1.2454... Reuters news, Bank of England's Governor Bailey begins press conference and says :
- encouraging that inflation will be close to target in coming months
- absence of data surprises is a sign we are getting back to more normal economic times
- higher than expected wage and services inflation since Feb should give us pause for thought, but should not overinterpret
- change in bank rate in June is neither ruled out nor a fait accompli
- expect second round effects on domestic wages and prices to fade slightly faster than previously assumed
- we are making very good progress in returning inflation to 2%
- likely we will need to cut bank rate over the coming quarters
- possible we will need to cut rates more than currently prices into market rates
- rate cuts will really depend on how data evolve
- we have no preconceptions about how far and fast we will cut rates
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| 9 May 2024 |
11:12 |
GBP/USD - 1.2454... Reuters reported the Bank of England took another step towards lowering interest rates, as a second official backed a cut and Governor Andrew Bailey said he was "optimistic that things are moving in the right direction".
The BoE said on Thursday its Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep rates at a 16-year high of 5.25% after Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden joined Swati Dhingra in voting for a cut to 5%.
Economists polled by Reuters had mostly expected another 8-1 split to keep rates on hold.
The MPC has now kept rates on hold at six meetings in a row but it hinted that a first cut since March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic could come as soon as its next meeting in June, a potential boost for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
He has told voters that the economy is turning a corner but is struggling to reduce the opposition Labour Party's big opinion poll lead before an election later this year.
The BoE added a line to its post-meeting statement, saying it would be watching the next rounds of economic data closely.
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| 9 May 2024 |
11:12 |
Continues from previous update...
"The Committee will consider forthcoming data releases and how these inform the assessment that the risks for inflation persistence are receding," the BoE said.
"On that basis, the Committee will keep under review for how long Bank Rate should be maintained at its current level."
Over a nearly two-year period from late 2021, the BoE - like other central banks - pushed up borrowing costs to tackle a surge in inflation which peaked at 11.1% in October 2022.
Since then, headline inflation has fallen back and the BoE expects it slowed to around its 2% target in April, largely because of falling energy prices.
But the BoE has remained on guard because of still-strong wage growth and services price inflation which threaten to push inflation back above 2%.
Bailey said the news on inflation had been encouraging.
"We need to see more evidence that inflation will stay low before we can cut interest rates," he said in a statement. "I'm optimistic that things are moving in the right direction."
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| 9 May 2024 |
02:48 |
USD/JPY - 155.57... Reuters news, BOJ Governor Ueda says :
- expect positive wage-inflation cycle to strengthen
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| 9 May 2024 |
02:47 |
USD/JPY - 155.58... Reuters earlier reported many Bank of Japan board members saw the need to raise interest rates and eventually reduce the bank's bond purchases, with some warning that inflation may overshoot its expectations, a summary of opinions at the April policy meeting showed on Thursday.
"If the outlook shown in our April quarterly report is realized, our 2% inflation target will be sustainably and stably achieved in about two years and the output gap will be positive. Therefore, there's a chance our policy interest rate will be higher than the path currently priced in by the market," one member was quoted as saying.
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| 8 May 2024 |
04:07 |
USD/JPY - 155.17... Reuters news, Japan FinMin Suzuki says :
- won't comment on forex levels
- important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals
- rapid fx moves undesirable
- weak yen has positive and negative aspects
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| 7 May 2024 |
05:31 |
AUD/USD - 0.6600... Reuters news, RBA Governor Bullock begins press conference and says :
- must be vigilant on inflation risks
- believe rates at right level to get inflation back to target
- government concious that budget should not add to inflation pressures
- don't think we necessarily have to tighten again
- will tighten if we have to
- might have to raise rates, might not
- board discussed option of raising rates
- think we have got it right on policy, will move if needed
- should not read too much into technical assumptions on rate forecasts
- board is signalling that they are vigilant on inflation risks
- still think policy risks are reasonably balanced, but need to be vigilant
- we hope economy will not have to stomach even higher rates
- if services inflation gets stuck, we are going to have to act
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| 7 May 2024 |
04:36 |
AUD/USD - 0.6607... Reuters reported Australia's central bank held interest rates steady on Tuesday as expected, while noting inflation was easing more gradually than hoped and it was vigilant to upside risks for price pressures.
Wrapping up its May policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates at a 12-year high of 4.35%, where they have been since a hike last November.
Markets had wagered on a steady outcome, but with some small risk of a rate increase given inflation had not slowed as much as hoped in the first quarter of the year.
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| 7 May 2024 |
04:35 |
Continues from previous update...
The outlook remains highly uncertain. The economic outlook remains uncertain and recent data have demonstrated that the process of returning inflation to target is unlikely to be smooth.
The central forecasts, based on the assumption that the cash rate follows market expectations, are for inflation to return to the target range of 2-3 per cent in the second half of 2025, and to the midpoint in 2026. In the near term, inflation is forecast to be higher because of the recent rise in domestic petrol prices, and higher than expected services price inflation, which is now forecast to decline more slowly over the rest of the year.
Inflation is, however, expected to decline over 2025 and 2026. The persistence of services inflation is a key uncertainty. It is expected to ease more slowly than previously forecast, reflecting stronger labour market conditions including a more gradual increase in the unemployment rate and the broader underutilisation rate. Growth in unit labour costs also remains very high. It has begun to moderate slightly as measured productivity growth picked up in the second half of last year. This trend needs to be sustained over time if inflation is to continue to decline.
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| 7 May 2024 |
04:33 |
AUD/USD - 0.6615... Reuters reported, following is the text of the Reserve Bank of Australia's statement on Tuesday after its monthly monetary policy meeting.
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 per cent.
Inflation remains high and is falling more gradually than expected. Recent information indicates that inflation continues to moderate, but is declining more slowly than expected. The CPI grew by 3.6 per cent over the year to the March quarter, down from 4.1 per cent over the year to December. Underlying inflation was higher than headline inflation and declined by less. This was due in large part to services inflation, which remains high and is moderating only gradually.
Higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply somewhat closer towards balance. But the data indicate continuing excess demand in the economy, coupled with strong domestic cost pressures, both for labour and non-labour inputs. Conditions in the labour market have eased over the past year, but remain tighter than is consistent with sustained full employment and inflation at target. Wages growth appears to have peaked but is still above the level that can be sustained given trend productivity growth. Meanwhile, inflation is still weighing on people's real incomes and output growth has been subdued, reflecting weak household consumption growth.
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| 7 May 2024 |
04:32 |
AUD/USD - 0.6611... Reuters reported Reserve Bank of Australia : at its meeting today, the board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent and the interest rate paid on exchange settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 per cent
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| 6 May 2024 |
08:01 |
EUR/USD - 1.0760... Reuters reported euro zone business activity expanded at its fastest pace in almost a year last month as a resurgence in the bloc's dominant services industry more than offset a deeper downturn in manufacturing, a survey showed on Monday.
HCOB's composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the currency union, compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, bounced to 51.7 in April from March's 50.3, surpassing a preliminary 51.4 estimate.
That was its second month above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction and the highest since May last year.
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